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Draft Preview: 27-year-old breakouts  
 


Not all 27-year-olds are created equal.

We learned that last year. Carlos Beltran, our No. 1 27-year-old, wound up being the No. 1 bust in Fantasy Baseball 2005. And Cristian Guzman, bless his little heart, was the worst player in the major leagues.

2006 Owners Manual and Draft Guide  
Get your 2006 Owners Manual and Draft Guide!

That doesn't say much for the age-27 theory -- the anticipated breakout season for big-league hitters. It has long been said the human body reaches its physical peak at 27 years old and baseball history has shown the game's best hitters arrive in the big-time at that age.

Curse you, Beltran and Guzman.

Seriously, though, our rule of thumb is meant to find breakouts before they pop, so technically the disappointments of Beltran, Eric Chavez and Guzman don't hurt as much for us as they did their Fantasy owners. Those players came into last season having already had their breakout.

Hitters
Age 27 breakthroughs
Rk Player POS
1 Vernon Wells OF
2 Clint Barmes SS
3 Milton Bradley OF
4 Ryan Church OF
5 Kevin Youkilis 3B
6 Nick Johnson 1B
7 Xavier Nady OF
8 Lance Niekro 1B
9 Josh Willingham C
10 Joe Crede 3B

But the 27-year-old rule did work with Andruw Jones (51 homers), Travis Hafner (33 homers), Chone Figgins (MLB-leading 62 SBs), Brian Roberts (.314-18-73-92-27 and a first half from age-27 heaven) and Shawn Chacon (7-5, 2.90 ERA in second half). So, all is not lost with the age-27 phenomenon.

For every breakthrough there is a bust -- just like throughout Fantasy Baseball. The trick is not getting caught on the wrong side of ledger.

This spring we are leaving the pitchers out of the conversation all together -- mostly because we have decided the third year (or roughly 50-60 career starts) is a better timeline for pitching breakthroughs.

In case you still want to follow through on the age-27 rule with pitchers, here are the studs who will be the golden age on opening day: LHP Johan Santana, MIN; LHP Mark Buehrle, CHW; LHP Cliff Lee, CLE; LHP Barry Zito, OAK and RHP Ben Sheets. They all are considered aces already, so you won't get much value out of knowing they're in their prime. But in the chart to the right, we rank the top 10 sleeper 27-year-old pitchers.

Pitchers
Age 27 breakthroughs
Rk Player POS
1 Erik Bedard LHP
2 Aaron Heilman RHP
3 Mike Gonzalez LHP
4 Brad Penny RHP
5 Jason Marquis RHP
6 Aaron Harang RHP
7 John Lackey RHP
8 Chris Capuano LHP
9 Dave Williams LHP
10 Jason Jennings RHP

Erik Bedard leads the list as a third-year starting pitcher who now has the added bonus of pitching guru Leo Mazzone in camp. He showed in the first half of last season he can be dominant. Aaron Heilman is a third-year pitcher, too, and is getting a shot at the Mets rotation, while the rest of the list can see significant improvement from their Draft Day value.

In the honorable mention category among the 27-year-old pitchers: RHP Tony Armas, WAS; RHP Brandon Backe, HOU; RHP Aaron Cook, COL; RHP Juan Cruz, OAK; RHP Zach Day, COL; RHP Joel Pineiro, SEA; RHP Jon Rauch, WAS; RHP Claudio Vargas, ARI; RHP Byung-Hyun Kim, COL; RHP Kyle Lohse, MIN.

Among the already-arrived Fantasy stud batsmen who are 27 on opening day: OF Jason Bay, PIT; C Victor Martinez, CLE; 2B Chase Utley, PHI; 3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC; SS Jimmy Rollins, PHI; and 2B Marcus Giles, ATL.

You can be pretty sure those guys will give you good return on the early round pick (or top dollar) you use on them. The list we cobbled together below have varying degrees of Draft Day value, but they are ranked here to outline their potential rewards as sleepers:

1. OF Vernon Wells, TOR

Turned 27: Dec. 8, 2005

If there's a high-end breakthrough on the level of Andruw Jones (51 homers) last season it's Wells, who has already had a big season in 2003 (.317-30-117-118) at age 24.

Vernon Wells, a Team USA OF, is entering his prime with an improved supporting cast. (AP)  
Vernon Wells, a Team USA OF, is entering his prime with an improved supporting cast. (AP)  
The significance of that season being it was Carlos Delgado's campaign for MVP that came up just short. Wells hasn't really had a productive supporting cast since then as Delgado was banged up and then allowed to flee via free agency. The Jays have turned the corner on rebuilding and are now loading up in the big-ticket AL East.

After a few disappointing seasons, Wells enters his 27-year-old season with a dramatically improved lineup around him. The additions of slugger Troy Glaus and vastly underrated Lyle Overbay will force pitchers to go after the potential .300-30-100-100 man.

Wells' age, productivity and ceiling combine to keep him from dropping to the middle rounds on Draft Day, but he could wind up behind excellent value in the early rounds.

Our Rotisserie projections: .294-30-105-100-8 (.508 SLUG, .356 OBP)

2. SS Clint Barmes, COL

Turned 27: March 6, 2006

We have already seen what Barmes can do -- before he fell down a flight of stairs and out of the Rookie of the Year race, that is.

The Rockies shortstop was chugging along at .329 with eight homers, 34 RBI and 40 runs scored (.516 SLUG and .371 OBP) through the first two months of the season before tearing up his shoulder carrying deer meat up the stairs to his apartment. He needed surgery and wasn't quite himself when the returned in the final month (.209-1-9-13 in 115 September at-bats).

An offseason of rest should help the shoulder repair itself and Barmes will be a year wiser on the field and in his extracurricular choices (reports were he was riding ATVs at Todd Helton's home on the day of alleged deer meat incident).

Barmes will last into the middle rounds of a standard mixed league, but those first two months of 2005 showed he's capable of producing at an early round clip. Entering his 27-prime certainly will help in that regard.

Our Rotisserie projections: .285-18-78-96-15 (.451 SLUG, .330 OBP)

3. OF Milton Bradley, OAK

Turned 27: April 15, 2005

Bradley was 27 most of last season, but he still qualifies here because he's a 27-year-old on opening day. Now, if he could only act his age for once.

The player who has more time in anger management courses and on the DL than on the field takes his act to Oakland. Hopefully, the A's can usurp his talent.

A return to the AL will help get him more at-bats -- he can DH when he's nicked up -- and if he ever played 162 games, he could be a .300-25-100-100-15 performer. Forget the steals with the Moneyball -ing A's -- they never run -- but Bradley has his best supporting cast yet.

Assuming he gets along with them.

Bradley will be a middle-to-late round pick in standard mixed leagues, but his potential is far greater. If only the age 27 thing could kick him out of his funk.

Our Rotisserie projections: .291-19-78-75-14 (.479 SLUG, .374 OBP)

4 OF Ryan Church, WAS

Turned 27: Oct. 14, 2005

One of our favorite rookie sleepers of a year ago was a second-half disappointment (.231-2-14-13 in 108 at-bats) like so many of the Nationals, but he was outstanding when healthy and playing regularly in the first half (.325-7-28-28 in 160 at-bats).

One of the more surprising numbers on the lefty-swinging outfielder is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Hit is an understatement. He mashed them last year, going .367 (11-for-30) with a .663 SLUG and a .441 OBP.

Church enters 2006 at the right age and likely a full-timer for the first time. Those two factors should combine to make him a solid low-end option in mixed leagues -- even if his bad home ballpark is tough on hitters.

Our Rotisserie projections: .292-18-80-90-6 (.475 SLUG, .362 OBP)

5 3B Kevin Youkilis, BOS

Turned 27: March 15, 2006

There are so many reasons to like the "Greek God of Walks": his age, a first-time starter, his walks, his size and swing that will develop power and he's a right-handed bat in Fenway Park.

The best of them has to be his status as an everyday first baseman in the Red Sox's lineup. Youkilis is a late-rounder in mixed leagues, but his corner infield versatility and production will be far better than his draft position or auction value.

Our Rotisserie projections: .294-19-80-80-2 (.471 SLUG, .390 OBP)

The best of the rest:

6 1B Nick Johnson, WAS

Turned 27: Sept. 19, 2005

Our Rotisserie projections: .290-19-84-79-4 (.477 SLUG, .402 OBP)

7 RF Xavier Nady, NYM

Turned 27: Nov. 14, 2005

Our Rotisserie projections: .275-16-64-49-4 (.453 SLUG, .335 OBP)

8 1B Lance Niekro, SF

Turned 27: Jan. 29, 2006

Our Rotisserie projections: .275-18-63-50-1 (.493 SLUG, .326 OBP)

9 C Josh Willingham, FLA

Turned 27: Feb. 17, 2006

Our Rotisserie projections: .284-14-62-47-3 (.455 SLUG, .354 OBP)

10 3B Joe Crede, CHW

Turned 27: April 26, 2005

Our Rotisserie projections: .266-23-75-60-1 (.470 SLUG, .318 OBP)

Some other hitters who are 27 on opening day and could be due to surprise: C Yorvit Torrealba, COL; 1B Carlos Pena, DET; UTL Alex Cintron, CHW; OF Luis Matos, BAL; 1B Hee Seop Choi, LAD; OF/3B Michael Cuddyer, MIN; OF Juan Rivera, LAA; C Miguel Olivo, FLA; OF Luke Scott, HOU; OF Jason Dubois, CLE; C Humberto Cota, PIT; OF Chris Aguila, FLA; OF/2B Willie Harris, BOS; UTL Nick Green, TB; OF Jason Ellison, SF; UTL Bobby Hill, SD; OF Joe Borchard, CHW; OF Alex Escobar, WAS; OF J.J. Davis,COL; OF John Gall, STL; OF Michael Restovich, CHC; OF Charles Thomas, OAK; DH Josh Phelps, DET.

Preseason All-27 Team
POS Player TM
C Victor Martinez CLE
1B Nick Johnson WAS
2B Chase Utley PHI
3B Aramis Ramirez CHC
SS Jimmy Rollins PHI
OF Jason Bay PIT
OF Vernon Wells TOR
OF Milton Bradley OAK
LHP Johan Santana MIN
RHP Ben Sheets MIL
CL Mike Gonzalez PIT
All-27 Sleeper Team