Not all 27-year-olds are created equal.
We learned that last year. Carlos Beltran, our No. 1 27-year-old,
wound up being the No. 1 bust in Fantasy Baseball 2005. And Cristian
Guzman, bless his little heart, was the worst player in the major
leagues.
That doesn't say much for the age-27 theory -- the anticipated breakout
season for big-league hitters. It has long been said the human body
reaches its physical peak at 27 years old and baseball history has shown
the game's best hitters arrive in the big-time at that age.
Curse you, Beltran and Guzman.
Seriously, though, our rule of thumb is meant to find breakouts before
they pop, so technically the disappointments of Beltran, Eric Chavez
and Guzman don't hurt as much for us as they did their Fantasy owners. Those
players came into last season having already had their breakout.
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Hitters
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Age 27 breakthroughs
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Rk
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Player
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POS
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1
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Vernon Wells
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OF
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2
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Clint Barmes
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SS
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3
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Milton Bradley
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OF
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4
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Ryan Church
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OF
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5
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Kevin Youkilis
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3B
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6
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Nick Johnson
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1B
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7
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Xavier Nady
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OF
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8
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Lance Niekro
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1B
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9
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Josh Willingham
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C
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10
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Joe Crede
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3B
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But the 27-year-old rule did work with Andruw Jones (51 homers),
Travis Hafner (33 homers), Chone Figgins (MLB-leading 62 SBs),
Brian Roberts (.314-18-73-92-27 and a first half from age-27 heaven)
and Shawn Chacon (7-5, 2.90 ERA in second half). So, all is not
lost with the age-27 phenomenon.
For every breakthrough there is a bust -- just like throughout Fantasy
Baseball. The trick is not getting caught on the wrong side of ledger.
This spring we are leaving the pitchers out of the conversation all
together -- mostly because we have decided the third year (or roughly
50-60 career starts) is a better timeline for pitching breakthroughs.
In case you still want to follow through on the age-27 rule with
pitchers, here are the studs who will be the golden age on opening day:
LHP Johan Santana, MIN; LHP Mark Buehrle, CHW; LHP
Cliff Lee, CLE; LHP Barry Zito, OAK and RHP Ben Sheets.
They all are considered aces already, so you won't get much value out
of knowing they're in their prime. But in the chart to the right, we
rank the top 10 sleeper 27-year-old pitchers.
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Pitchers
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Age 27 breakthroughs
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Rk
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Player
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POS
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1
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Erik Bedard
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LHP
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2
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Aaron Heilman
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RHP
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3
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Mike Gonzalez
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LHP
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4
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Brad Penny
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RHP
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5
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Jason Marquis
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RHP
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6
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Aaron Harang
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RHP
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7
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John Lackey
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RHP
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8
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Chris Capuano
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LHP
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9
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Dave Williams
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LHP
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10
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Jason Jennings
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RHP
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Erik Bedard leads the list as a third-year starting pitcher who
now has the added bonus of pitching guru Leo Mazzone in camp. He showed
in the first half of last season he can be dominant. Aaron Heilman
is a third-year pitcher, too, and is getting a shot at the Mets
rotation, while the rest of the list can see significant improvement
from their Draft Day value.
In the honorable mention category among the 27-year-old pitchers: RHP
Tony Armas, WAS; RHP Brandon Backe, HOU; RHP Aaron Cook,
COL; RHP Juan Cruz, OAK; RHP Zach Day, COL; RHP Joel Pineiro,
SEA; RHP Jon Rauch, WAS; RHP Claudio Vargas, ARI; RHP
Byung-Hyun Kim, COL; RHP Kyle Lohse, MIN.
Among the already-arrived Fantasy stud batsmen who are 27 on opening
day: OF Jason Bay, PIT; C Victor Martinez, CLE; 2B
Chase Utley, PHI; 3B Aramis Ramirez, CHC; SS Jimmy Rollins,
PHI; and 2B Marcus Giles, ATL.
You can be pretty sure those guys will give you good return on the early
round pick (or top dollar) you use on them. The list we cobbled together
below have varying degrees of Draft Day value, but they are ranked here
to outline their potential rewards as sleepers:
1. OF Vernon Wells, TOR
Turned 27: Dec. 8, 2005
If there's a high-end breakthrough on the level of Andruw Jones
(51 homers) last season it's Wells, who has already had a big season in
2003 (.317-30-117-118) at age 24.
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Vernon Wells, a Team USA OF, is entering his prime with an improved supporting cast.
(AP)
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The significance of that season being it was Carlos Delgado's
campaign for MVP that came up just short. Wells hasn't really had
a productive supporting cast since then as Delgado was banged up and
then allowed to flee via free agency. The Jays have turned the corner on
rebuilding and are now loading up in the big-ticket AL East.
After a few disappointing seasons, Wells enters his 27-year-old season
with a dramatically improved lineup around him. The additions of slugger
Troy Glaus and vastly underrated Lyle Overbay will force pitchers
to go after the potential .300-30-100-100 man.
Wells' age, productivity and ceiling combine to keep him from dropping
to the middle rounds on Draft Day, but he could wind up behind excellent
value in the early rounds.
Our Rotisserie projections: .294-30-105-100-8 (.508 SLUG, .356
OBP)
2. SS Clint Barmes, COL
Turned 27: March 6, 2006
We have already seen what Barmes can do -- before he fell down a flight
of stairs and out of the Rookie of the Year race, that is.
The Rockies shortstop was chugging along at .329 with eight homers, 34
RBI and 40 runs scored (.516 SLUG and .371 OBP) through the first two
months of the season before tearing up his shoulder carrying deer meat
up the stairs to his apartment. He needed surgery and wasn't quite
himself when the returned in the final month (.209-1-9-13 in 115
September at-bats).
An offseason of rest should help the shoulder repair itself and Barmes
will be a year wiser on the field and in his extracurricular choices
(reports were he was riding ATVs at Todd Helton's home on the day
of alleged deer meat incident).
Barmes will last into the middle rounds of a standard mixed league, but
those first two months of 2005 showed he's capable of producing at an
early round clip. Entering his 27-prime certainly will help in that
regard.
Our Rotisserie projections: .285-18-78-96-15 (.451 SLUG, .330
OBP)
3. OF Milton Bradley, OAK
Turned 27: April 15, 2005
Bradley was 27 most of last season, but he still qualifies here because
he's a 27-year-old on opening day. Now, if he could only act his age for
once.
The player who has more time in anger management courses and on the DL
than on the field takes his act to Oakland. Hopefully, the A's can usurp
his talent.
A return to the AL will help get him more at-bats -- he can DH when he's
nicked up -- and if he ever played 162 games, he could be a
.300-25-100-100-15 performer. Forget the steals with the Moneyball
-ing A's -- they never run -- but Bradley has his best supporting cast yet.
Assuming he gets along with them.
Bradley will be a middle-to-late round pick in standard mixed leagues,
but his potential is far greater. If only the age 27 thing could kick
him out of his funk.
Our Rotisserie projections: .291-19-78-75-14 (.479 SLUG, .374
OBP)
4 OF Ryan Church, WAS
Turned 27: Oct. 14, 2005
One of our favorite rookie sleepers of a year ago was a second-half
disappointment (.231-2-14-13 in 108 at-bats) like so many of the
Nationals, but he was outstanding when healthy and playing regularly in
the first half (.325-7-28-28 in 160 at-bats).
One of the more surprising numbers on the lefty-swinging outfielder is
his ability to hit left-handed pitching. Hit is an understatement. He
mashed them last year, going .367 (11-for-30) with a .663 SLUG and a
.441 OBP.
Church enters 2006 at the right age and likely a full-timer for the
first time. Those two factors should combine to make him a solid low-end
option in mixed leagues -- even if his bad home ballpark is tough on
hitters.
Our Rotisserie projections: .292-18-80-90-6 (.475 SLUG, .362
OBP)
5 3B Kevin Youkilis, BOS
Turned 27: March 15, 2006
There are so many reasons to like the "Greek God of Walks": his age, a
first-time starter, his walks, his size and swing that will develop
power and he's a right-handed bat in Fenway Park.
The best of them has to be his status as an everyday first baseman in
the Red Sox's lineup. Youkilis is a late-rounder in mixed leagues, but
his corner infield versatility and production will be far better than
his draft position or auction value.
Our Rotisserie projections: .294-19-80-80-2 (.471 SLUG, .390
OBP)
The best of the rest:
6 1B Nick Johnson, WAS
Turned 27: Sept. 19, 2005
Our Rotisserie projections: .290-19-84-79-4 (.477 SLUG, .402
OBP)
7 RF Xavier Nady, NYM
Turned 27: Nov. 14, 2005
Our Rotisserie projections: .275-16-64-49-4 (.453 SLUG, .335
OBP)
8 1B Lance Niekro, SF
Turned 27: Jan. 29, 2006
Our Rotisserie projections: .275-18-63-50-1 (.493 SLUG, .326
OBP)
9 C Josh Willingham, FLA
Turned 27: Feb. 17, 2006
Our Rotisserie projections: .284-14-62-47-3 (.455 SLUG, .354
OBP)
10 3B Joe Crede, CHW
Turned 27: April 26, 2005
Our Rotisserie projections: .266-23-75-60-1 (.470 SLUG, .318
OBP)
Some other hitters who are 27 on opening day and could be due to
surprise: C Yorvit Torrealba, COL; 1B Carlos Pena, DET;
UTL Alex Cintron, CHW; OF Luis Matos, BAL; 1B Hee Seop
Choi, LAD; OF/3B Michael Cuddyer, MIN; OF Juan Rivera,
LAA; C Miguel Olivo, FLA; OF Luke Scott, HOU; OF Jason
Dubois, CLE; C Humberto Cota, PIT; OF Chris Aguila,
FLA; OF/2B Willie Harris, BOS; UTL Nick Green, TB; OF
Jason Ellison, SF; UTL Bobby Hill, SD; OF Joe Borchard,
CHW; OF Alex Escobar, WAS; OF J.J. Davis,COL; OF John
Gall, STL; OF Michael Restovich, CHC; OF Charles Thomas,
OAK; DH Josh Phelps, DET.
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Preseason All-27 Team
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POS
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Player
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TM
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C
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Victor Martinez
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CLE
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1B
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Nick Johnson
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WAS
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2B
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Chase Utley
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PHI
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3B
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Aramis Ramirez
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CHC
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SS
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Jimmy Rollins
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PHI
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OF
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Jason Bay
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PIT
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OF
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Vernon Wells
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TOR
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OF
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Milton Bradley
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OAK
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LHP
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Johan Santana
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MIN
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RHP
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Ben Sheets
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MIL
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CL
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Mike Gonzalez
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PIT
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